北京三次产业演变与PM2.5排放的动态关系研究

Dynamic Relationship Between the Evolution of Three Industries and PM2.5 Emissions in Beijing

基于三次产业经济增长与PM2.5排放关系视角回答PM2.5排放源争议以及减排措施的有效性问题,文章基于2008-2014年季度数据,利用X-12-ARIMA方法分析PM2.5排放数据的季节性波动,并构建向量自回归模型,实证结果显示,PM2.5排放数据不存在稳定季节性和移动季节性特征;第二、三产业经济增长是PM2.5排放的格兰杰原因;第二产业是PM2.5排放的长期主要来源,累计效应稳定在15,短期波动对PM2.5排放产生较强促排效应,但在滞后3期出现抑排效应,表明减排措施存在滞后效应;第三产业长期为抑排效应,累计效应稳定在-3,但在滞后3期出现促排效应,表明存在PM2.5排放部门;方差分解结果显示,三次产业经济增长对PM2.5排放的贡献比例为45.2%,其中第二产业>第三产业>第一产业,贡献率分别为33.82%,11.04%,0.36%;其余为区域传输和生活排放,区域传输贡献为28%-36%,生活排放包括私家车、生活消耗燃煤,以及居民烹饪的油烟,比例可达到20%左右。研究结果支持了PM2.5排放源中存在31.1%的机动车和14.1%的餐饮业排放,而不存在高比例的生物质燃烧排放。据此明确了当前第二产业减排措施的有效性和滞后性,以及加强第三产业减排、顶层设计京津冀区域协同减排和控制生活排放的相应措施。

Based on a detection of the relationship between three industries＇ economic growths and PM2.5 emissions, this paper aimed to give the answers to the disputation of the PM2.5 emissions source and the effectiveness of some emission reduction measures. With the quarterly data from 2008 to 2014, the X - 12 - ARIMA method was used to analyze seasonal fluctuations of PM2.5 emissions, and a VAR model was built. Empirical result shows as follows： there is no presence of stable seasonality and moving seasonality for PM2.5 emissions data; The economic growth of secondary industry and tertiary industry is Granger reason of the PM2.5 emissions ; The secondary industry is the primary source of the PM2.5 emissions in the long-term, the accumulative effect is stable at 15, and the short term fluctuations has a stronger positive effects on PM2.5 emissions; A negative effects is emerging at a lag of 3 terms, which gives an evidence of the delayed effects of the current emissions reduction measure. The tertiary industry has an inhibiting effects of emissions in the long-term, because the accumulative effect is stable at - 3, but a promotion effect occurs after 3 terms lagged, which means some departments in tertiary industry should take charge of PM2.5 emissions. The results of variance decomposition show that the cumulative effects of three industry economic growths to PM2.5 emissions is 45.2%, specifically, the second industry（ 33.82% ） 〉 the tertiary industry（ 11.04% ） 〉 the first industry（0.36% ）. The other emissions sources are regional transport （28% -36% ）and domestic emissions（ about 20% ） including private ears, living coal and residential exhaust soot. The study results supported the point that there are 31.1% emission of motor vehicle and 14.1% emission of catering industry in PM2.5, but no high ratio of the burning of biomass. This study testified the effectiveness and hysteresis of emission reducing measures in current secondary industry, and proposed reinforoing measures for tertiary industry＇ s emissions reduction, collaborative reduction measures for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.