低碳城市能源需求与碳排放情景分析

Scenario Analysis on Energy Demand and CO_2 Emission of Low Carbon City

以应对气候变化和发展低碳经济为大背景,在分析中国城市能源需求和碳排放现状与发展瓶颈的基础上,探讨了低碳城市未来可能的发展路径问题。选择河南省济源市作为研究开展的案例城市,借助情景分析法和"脱钩"概念模型,展示了济源市在能源和碳排放约束条件下,到2030年不同情景的低碳发展图景。认为:第一,从需求角度来看,能源需求总量在基准情景、低碳情景和强化低碳情景下均呈增长趋势,由于驱动因素的作用差异,基准情景下能源需求量最大,强化低碳情景下最小;第二,从消费角度来讲,人均能源消费量在不同情景下的变化趋势各有特点,其中低碳情景下可能在2020年前后出现拐点,此时人均能源消费量约为16.9tce/人,绝对值仍然较高;第三,从不同情景下减排潜力来看,低碳情景和强化低碳情景下仍具有较大的减排空间,例如2020年低碳情景下可能减排约741万t,强化低碳情景下约可减排1 790万t。基于对城市未来能源需求和碳排放的情景分析结果,给出了城市低碳发展的结论和政策建议:一是济源市的能源需求若保持现有高速增长趋势是不可取的,低碳情景下和强化低碳情景下能源需求总量和增速有明显改善;二是尽管在最严格的情景下,济源市的人均能耗预测值仍然高于国际国内其他城市的预测,但由于其资源禀赋、产业定位等问题,要实现这个目标仍存在着一定的挑战;三是济源市的经济增长依靠工业生产拉动,对于工业占比为绝对主导的这类城市而言,发展低碳经济的着力点和减排潜力释放应在传统产业格局的升级改造上。

This paper took climate change and low carbon economy development as the background. Based on the analysis of energy demand and carbon emissions in Chinese cities＇ status and development bottleneck, It was aimed at providing the path of low carbon cities. Then this paper showed the low carbon city＇ s development prospect till the year 2030 in different scenarios using the concept of scenario analysis and decoupling theory, taking Jiyuan City as the case study. The conclusions are as follows： From the perspective of demand, the energy demand shows the growing trend in the BaU, LC and ELC scenarios, and a maximum trend in BaU but a minimum one in ELC scenario because of the different driving factors ; From the perspective of consumption, the energy consumption per capita presents different changes in different scenarios, and the inflection point will appear by the year 2020 in LC scenario with the energy consumption per capita 16.9 tee, and the value is still in a high level; From the point of view in emission reduction potential, there are still a large reduction potential in the LC and ELC scenario, for example, the emission reduction amount in 2020 will be about 741 x 104 t, and 1 790 x 104 t in ELC scenario. Based on the results of the scenario analysis in cities＇ energy demand and carbon emissions, this paper gave some policy options and guides to low carbon cities＇ development. Firstly, the energy demand in the present rapid growth trend is not a preferred option in Jiyuan city, and the LC scenario and ELC scenario are significantly improved; Secondly, although in the strictest scenario, the index of per capita energy consumption in Jiyuan is still higher than the predicted value of other cities, but there are still challenges for the city because of its resources characteristics and industry positioning issues; Thirdly, the cities like Jiyuan whose economic growth has close connection to the industrial production, should focus on the pattern of transformation and upgrading in traditional industries in its＇ development on low carbon economy and potential release.