黄河三角洲水资源可持续利用评价与预测

Water Resources Sustainable Utilization Evaluation Based on the DPSIR in the Yellow River Delta

黄河三角洲地处黄河下游入海口,兼受海陆交互影响,淡水资源贫乏。评价和预测黄河三角洲水资源的可持续利用水平,对于进一步缓解区域水资源供需矛盾,促进当地生态保护与经济社会协调发展,具有重要的指导意义。本文以DPSIR模型为框架,选取21项指标构建水资源可持续利用评价指标体系,对研究区2000-2012年的水资源可持续利用水平进行了评价。从总体评价值来看,2000-2012年黄河三角洲水资源可持续利用的整体水平呈波动上升趋势,其中2002年评价值最低,为0.107,2012年评价值最高,为0.801;从各因子来看,2002年驱动力、压力、状态、影响、响应五个因子的评价值都较低,其中驱动力值和状态值最低。2012年五大因子评价值出现较大幅度增加,其中影响和响应因子的评价值最高;从各因子的相关性来看,驱动力、压力和状态三个因子的值变化趋势比较一致,说明表征这三个因子的指标有较强的正相关性;而影响和响应两个因子的值变化趋势接近,同样说明表征这两个因子的指标有较好的正相关性;从各因子稳定性来看,驱动力值波动起伏较大,稳定性最差,这主要与黄河利津站径流量等驱动力因子的起伏变化大有关。文章还以2000-2012年水资源可持续利用水平值为原始数据,利用GM(1,1)模型预测了未来7年黄河三角洲水资源的可持续利用水平,经与灰色预测精度等级划分标准对照发现,预测结果的相对误差值分布在合格(<0.05)与勉强(<0.20)两个等级之间,误差在允许范围内。预测结果表明,黄河三角洲2014-2020年水资源可持续利用潜力呈稳定上升趋势,2020年水资源可持续利用潜力值为2.812 41,较2014年1.515 55增加近1倍,未来水资源的可持续利用水平将持续提高。

The Yellow River Delta located in the lower Yellow River estuary, is short of freshwater resources by the interaction of land and sea. Evaluation and prediction of water resources sustainable utilization levels have important guiding significance in further easing the regional water imbalance between supply and demand, and promoting the coordination of local economic development and ecological protection. Taking the DPSIR model as frame, 21 indexes were selected to set up the index system of the sustainable use evaluation to evaluate the sustainable utilization level from 2000 to 2012. The result showed that in the recent 13 years , the overall level of sustainable utilization of water resources fluctuated upward trend, the lowest level was 0. 107 in 2002, and the highest one was O. 801 in 2012. As for each factor, all evaluation values of five factors including driving forces, pressure, state, impact and response are low in 2002, among which the driving force and state values are the lowest. While in 2012 all evaluation values have a substantial increase, among which the impact and response factor are of highest evaluation value. From the point of view of each factor correlations, the value trend of driving force, pressure and state factors is more consistent among the five factors, indicating that indicators which characterize these three factors have a strong positive correlation, and the value change of the impact and response factor is similar which also illustrates these two factors indicators have better positive correlation. Considering the stability of each factor, the value of the driving force fluctuates greatly, which means the driving force value has the worst stability and is mainly associated with the ups and downs of the Yellow River runoff as well as other major relevant factors. Besides, based on the analysis result this paper used the GM （ 1, 1 ） to make the forecast of the sustainable utilization of the level from 2014 to 2020. Compared to the grey prediction precision grade division standard, we found that the relative error values of prediction distribute between qualified （ 〈 0.05 ） and inadequate （ 〈 0.20）, the error is within the allowable range. The prediction results showed that, in the next 7 years water resources sustainable utilization level woule be on a steady rise state. Compared with 1. 515 55 in 2014, sustainable utilization potential value of water resources in 2020 is 2. 812 41, increased by nearly one-fold, which means the level of future sustainable use of water resources will continue to increase.