贸易潜力、工资扭曲与城市人口规模

Trade Potential,Wage Distortions and the Size of the Urban Population

本文利用2004-2009年我国286个地级城市面板数据,构建了城市国内贸易潜力、国际贸易水平、劳动力市场工资扭曲三个指标,并以城市工资水平与以上三个指标为核心解释变量对城市人口规模进行计量分析。本文研究显示:工资的上涨有利于城市人口规模的扩张;城市国内贸易能有效带动城市人口集聚,但城市的国际贸易水平对城市人口规模的提升并没有直接而显著影响;工资扭曲虽然增加了企业对劳动力的需求,但需求的增加得不到供给的支持,相反,工资扭曲打破人口与企业集聚的良性循环,从而抑制了城市人口规模的扩张。

Using 2004- 2009 Chinese 286 prefecture- level cities panel data,this paper builds three indicators of the city＇s potentiality for domestic trade,the level of international trade,and the wage distortions of labor market. The three indicators are the core explanatory variables. This paper＇s studies have shown that urban domestic trade potential drives urban concentration of population and increases the size of the urban.This conclusion is very significant in the panel fixed effect estimation method,the random effects estimation and control endogenous instrumental variables estimation methods; the city＇s level of international trade to enhance the scale of the urban population has no direct or significant impact; wage distortions have greater inhibitory effect to the concentration of population,wages twisted lower wages increased corporate demand for labor,but wage distortions of labor supply inhibition stronger.