1978-2011年呼图壁河径流的变化趋势

Runoff Variation Trend of Hutubi River During 1978-2011

[目的]分析新疆维吾尔自治区呼图壁河径流变化特征与长期变化趋势,为制定科学合理的呼图壁地区水资源供需平衡发展战略提供理论支撑。[方法]采用变差系数法、距平累积法、Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法及Morlet连续复小波变换对呼图壁河石门水文站1978—2011年实测日流量资料进行分析。[结果]呼图壁河径流的年内变化主要受降水与气温的影响,其主要径流产生于5—9月,汛期为6—8月,径流量占全年径流量的69.4%,枯水期为12月至次年3月。呼图壁河的Cv平均值为0.149。近34a来径流量整体呈现出不显著的增加趋势,径流量的年际变化小,年际间持续枯水与持续丰水的时间几乎相同。此外,呼图壁河年径流存在4个较为显著的周期波动,其中18和29a分别为径流量年际变化的第Ⅰ、第Ⅱ主周期。[结论]呼图壁河近34a来径流量呈增加趋势,径流量的年际变化呈现出较为显著的周期性,径流量的年内分配很不均匀。

[Objective]The variation characteristics and long-term trends of Hutubi river were analyzed for providing theoretical support for the development,which is the strategy of supply and demand balance of water resources in Hutubi area of Xinjiang Wei Autonomous Region.[Methods]The measured data of daily runoff from Shimen hydrological station of Hutubi river during 1978—2011 were analyzed by using the methods of coefficient of variation,anomalies accumulation,Man—Kendall nonparametric rank correlation test and continuous complex Morlet wavelet transform.[Results]Changes in the Hutubi river runoff during the year was mainly affected by precipitation and temperature.Its main runoff derived from May to September,and its flood season from June to August accounted for 69.4%of the annual runoff,the low flow season was from December to March of the next year.Hutubi river average coefficient of variation was 0.149 during the 34 years.The annual runoff overall showed slight increasing trend.The annual runoff variation of Hutubi river was small,its continuous low water was almost identical with the duration of the wet among years.Besides,there were four more significant cycle fluctuations of the runoff.The 18-year was the first main cycle of runoff change,and the 29-year was the second.[Conclusion]In recent 34 years,the runoff was increased in Hutubi river.At the same time,the interannual variation of runoff showed obvious periodicity.In addition,the runoff annual distribution was serious uneven.