摘要
目的为更好地防御和控制埃博拉病毒疫情,需要建立病毒在高度聚集的人类社会中的传播数学模型。方法建立了包含潜伏节点的小世界网络传播模型(SEIR模型),并对病毒的实际传播情况进行了仿真,进而使用模型研究初始感染人数及社会的人群聚集度(关联度)对病毒传播过程的影响。结果模型的仿真结果与病毒实际报道的传播情况相符,表明所构建的模型对疫情防控具有现实指导意义。病毒的传播速度与初始染病人数和关联度具有明显的正相关关系,因此在潜伏期内对病毒传播进行干预以及对感染者进行隔离可对疫情进行有效控制。
Objective In order to prevent and control Ebola virus disease, a new virus transmission model should be established. Methods Based on the small - world network theory, a new SEIR model was proposed to simulate the transmission process of Ebola virus disease. Then, the number of infected and the frequency of human contacts, which were the two major factors, were investigated to explore their roles in virus transmission. Results Simulation results of the model were accorded with actual reports of the virus situation, which illustrated that the model was reasonable and practicable. There are positive relationships between propagation speed of the virus and these two major factors. Therefore, it is critical to isolate the infected and take some intervention methods in incu-bation period.
出处
《生物医学工程学进展》
CAS
2015年第2期91-94,共4页
Progress in Biomedical Engineering
