应用灰色层次分析-模糊综合评判法对煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预测

The Prediction of Coal and Gas Outburst Danger by Grey Hierarchy Analysis and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method

文章针对目前层次分析-模糊综合评判法在预测煤与瓦斯突出中的不足,提出一种集灰色关联分析、层次分析和模糊综合评判的混合预测方法。用灰色关联分析优选出与突出最为密切的主控因素,通过层次分析法确定其主控因素权重系数,运用模糊综合评判法建立了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测模型。最后,对某矿某煤层进行了煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测。实验结果表明,此预测方法是可行的,比应用层次分析-模糊综合评判法对煤与瓦斯突出进行预测算法简单、准确。

This paper, aiming at predicting the coal and gas outburst, put forward a set of grey correlation analysis, hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of hybrid prediction method. With grey correlation analysis of selected and highlight the main control factors of most closely. By using analytic hierarchy process（ahp） to determine the weight coefficients of main control factors was established by applying the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and the danger of coal and gas outburst prediction model and a coal seam in a mine in the danger of coal and gas outburst prediction were established. The experimental results show that this prediction method is feasible, simpler and more accurate than the application of hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of coal and gas outburst prediction algorithm.