由资本市场反应看电信业“营改增”对三大运营商税负的影响

Effect of VAT of Telecommunications Industry on Tax Burden of Three Major Operators from the Perspective of Capital Market Reaction

"营改增"试点于2014年6月1日起扩大到电信业,中国移动、中国联通和中国电信(三大运营商)作为行业巨头受其影响最大。然而,在选择《营改增通知》公布日作为事件日,并选用事件研究法分析股票市场对电信业"营改增"的反应时,发现股票市场对电信业"营改增"带来的税负在短期增加的负面信息已经消化,统计上没有显著的反应。利用已经公布的2014年半年报对各企业"营改增"后的实际税负进行分析,得出三大运营商"营改增"后实际税负的比例估计,发现三大运营商的税负大致相当,但仍需积极控制成本,降低利润下滑的幅度。

On June 1,2014, the reform program to replace the business tax with a value-aooeo tax was expanueu in telecommunications industry, which has great impact on China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom （ three major operators）. In this paper, the day, on which ＂VAT＂ was announced, is regarded as event day. So a study is conducted to analyze the effect of stock market on ＂VAT＂ of telecommunications industry based on the method of event study. The result indicates that the short-term negative information of tax burden brought by stock market has been digested, which is not significant statistically. According to the semi-annual report of 2014, the real tax burden of enterprises is analyzed after VAT in order to get the ratio estimation of real tax bur- den of three major operators. The study reveals that the tax burden is still overloaded. Therefore, it is necessary for them to control costs and discourage the inclination in profits.