货币竞争、溢出效应与通胀稳定性--来自发达与新兴经济体的经验证据

Monetary Competition,Spillover Effect and Inflation Stability:Evidence from developed and emerging economies

在开放经济条件下,研究和掌握通胀稳定性的影响因素和传导机制对于一国经济是否能够实现稳定的低水平通胀目标具有重要的现实意义,也是一国央行宏观调控能力的重要体现。本文通过Johansen协整和面板协整DOLS估计方法,实证检验了在货币竞争背景下发达经济体货币政策调整的溢出效应对新兴经济体通胀稳定性的影响因素和传导机制。研究结果表明:发达经济体扩张性货币政策通过资本流动和大宗商品价格渠道对新兴经济体通胀具有促进作用,而国际贸易渠道则起着抑制作用。

In an open economy, the study about the factors and transmission mechanisms of inflation stability has an important practical significance on whether a country＇s economy can achieve a low and stable inflation target, but also is an important manifestation of a country＇s macro - control ability of the central bank. In this paper, we had an empirical test of the factors and conduction mechanisms about the monetary policies in developed economies having spillover effects on the stability of inflation in emerging economies in the context of monetary competition by Johansen cointegration and panel cointegration DOLS estimation methods. The results show that： the developed economies＇ expansionary monetary policies play a promotion role on inflation in emerging economies through capital flows and commodity prices＇ channels, but play an inhibition role on inflation in emerging economies through the international trade channels. According to the research findings, we give some countermeasures and suggestions.