基于GM(1,1)模型的东营市冬枣栽植面积预测分析

Prediction Analysis of Winter Jujube Planting Area in Dongying City Based on GM(1,1) Model

以东营市2004—2009年冬枣栽植面积的数据为依据,应用灰色系统理论构建了GM(1,1)模型,该模型残差大小和后验差检验符合精度要求,进而运用该模型对2010年东营市冬枣的栽植面积做了预测,为有关单位科学决策提供了依据。

Using grey system theory, taking the data of winter jujube planting area in Dongying City from 2004 to 2009 as the basis,the GM （ 1, 1 ） model was built ,the residual size and backward error-detection of the model meet the requirements of accuracy.And then the planting area of winter jujube in dongying City in 2010 was forecasted by using the model ,so as to provide the basis for the decision-making of relevant department.