河南省农民工回流与非农就业问题的实证研究

An Empirical Study on Henan Province Migrant Workers Backflow and Nonagricultural Employment Problem

珠三角、长三角的产业转移与升级以及富士康等劳动密集型企业落户河南,都极大地推动了河南省外出务工农民工的回流以及农村劳动力的省内转移就业。通过CES经济增长模型和Logistic回归模型,对河南省农民工回流的原因及其非农就业选择进行了实证分析。结果表明,城市产出水平、城市工资、资本价格、农村收入、转移成本、城市失业总人数都会影响农民工回流,且回流农民工更加倾向于非农就业。

Industrial transfer and upgrading of the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, as well as Foxconn and other la- bor-intensive enterprises located in Henan province, which has greatly contributed to reflux and migrant rural labor transfer of migrant workers in the province of employment. The reasons of migrant workers reflux in Henan province and non-farm em- ployment options were analyzed by CES economic growth model and logistic regression analysis, which indicated that the out- put level cities, urban wages, capital prices, rural incomes, transfer costs, the total urban unemployment number could af- fect reflux, and reflux migrant workers were more inclined to payrolls.