1961-2013年黄淮海平原降蒸差的时空变化特征

Spatio-temporal Variability of Water Deficit in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain During 1961-2013

基于黄淮海平原41个气象站点1961-2013年逐日气象数据,利用Penman-Monteith公式计算潜在蒸散量,采用降水量与潜在蒸散量差值即降蒸差表征区域水分盈亏状况,结合Arc GIS地统计分析、趋势分析及Morlet小波分析,探讨黄淮海平原各季降蒸差的时空变化特征。结果表明：黄淮海平原降蒸差呈南北差异分布,在-650~100mm区间变化,南部高于北部。夏季降蒸差最高,秋、冬季次之,春季水分亏缺最严重,多年平均亏缺量为210.61mm,远高于其它季节。站点季节降蒸差的年际变化总体呈上升趋势。各农业亚区蒸散量差异不大,降蒸差差异主要由降水导致,鲁西平原鲁中丘陵水浇地旱地二熟区（Ⅵ区）降蒸差最高,为-21.63mm,海河低平原缺水水浇地二熟兼旱地一熟区（Ⅲ区）最低,为-560.42mm。6个亚区春季水分亏缺量分别占区域年总亏缺量的56.4%、51.7%、40.6%、59.7%、59.3%和66.1%。周期分析表明,黄淮海平原Ⅰ-Ⅳ各农业亚区春季降蒸差变化主周期皆为28a,黄淮平原南阳盆地水浇地旱地二熟区和江淮平原丘陵麦稻两熟区（Ⅴ和Ⅵ区）为10a,未来一段时间春季降蒸差将处于偏低期。黄淮海平原水分亏缺量季节性差异较大,干旱发生风险较高,尤以春旱发生频率较高。

Water shortage is recognized as the most serious problem for agriculture production in Huang-Huai-Hai plain（ 3H plain） and the changing characteristics for water resources in context of climate change remains unknown yet.Based on measured meteorological data obtained from 41 stations located in 3H plain,potential evapotranspiration was calculated by applying Penman-Monteith equation,and water deficit was described as the difference of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration at the same period. Finally,the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of water deficit in four seasons over 3H plain were analyzed by using Kendall-Theil robust line method,Mann-Kendall trend test and Morlet wavelet function. Results showed that multi-year average water deficit was negative in most part of 3H plain and varied between-650 mm and 100 mm with the spatial variation pattern of decreasing gradually from south to north.Among four seasons,spring was presented as the most serious water situation with the shortage of 210. 61 mm in multiyear average,which was higher than any other seasons. Trend analysis of seasonal multi-year average water deficit among 41 stations generally shown an upward trend except in autumn where only stations surrounding Jing-Jin-Ji district increased. Annual water deficit variation among 6 sub-regions was- 391. 45,- 510. 11,- 560. 42,- 427. 21,- 284. 19 and- 21. 63 mm in respectively and this variation was mainly induced by precipitation. For seasonal difference in 6 sub-regions,spring amounts for the highest water shortage period which occupied annual water shortage at 56. 4%,51. 7%,40. 6%,59. 7%,59. 3% and 66. 1%,respectively. Spring water deficit showed higher period,lower period alternately with the main period of 28 years for these six regions,10 years for region V and VI. The seasonal and spatial difference of water deficit in 3H plain indicated a high drought risks with spatio-temporal variability,especially in spring season. Thus,effective climate changing adoption needs water resources be operated rationally and agriculture irrigation arrangements with seasonal.