重估中国的资本存量:1952—2012

Re-Estimating China's Capital Stock( 1952-2012)

众多学者对中国资本存量进行了估算,但结果差异较大。主要原因在于,利用永续盘存法估算资本存量时,折旧率是一个重要而又敏感的参数。从理论上推导折旧率与资本产出比、固定资本形成率、经济增长率之间的关系;利用历年固定资本形成额来估算资本存量。估算过程不同于把第一年作为起点年的常见做法,而是把起点年定在第一个有投入产出表年份的1987年,向前反推过去年份、向后递推以后年份,同时估算折旧率和资本存量。由于有10个投入产出表年份的折旧额数据作为校准点,确保了估算各年折旧率和资本存量的准确性。

Many scholars have estimated the Chinese capital stock,but the results are quite different. The main reason is that the depreciation rate is an important and sensitive parameter when estimating capital stock by using the perpetual inventory method. This paper contributes to the theoretical reduction of the relationship among depreciation rate,capital-output ratio,formation rate of fixed assets and economic growth rate. It estimates capital stock by using capital formation of fixed assets in which the estimation procedure is different from the usual procedure. Instead of taking the first year as the starting year,it takes a particular year,1987,as the starting year because there is an input-output table that year. With forward and backward deduction to estimate depreciation rate as well as capital stock,this method ensures the accuracy of depreciation rate and capital stock series,since there are 10 input-output tables and corresponding depreciation amount as the calibrate points.