我国2016—2020年义务教育科学教师缺口量预测

Forecast of Shortage for Compulsory Education Science Teachers during 2016—2020 of China

以我国第六次人口普查数据为基础,对未来5年我国义务教育学龄人口进行预测,并结合入学率、班级规模、教师工作量、科学周课时数、现有科学教师量等因素对未来5年我国义务教育科学教师缺口量进行预测。预测发现:未来5年我国义务教育阶段科学教师缺口量较大,但义务教育教师内部的小学与初中之间、城镇与乡村之间、初中各学科之间缺口不均衡。为解决该问题,可从逐步推进1-6年级开设科学课、引导富余教师转岗至缺口学科和地区任教两方面着手。

Based on the China＇s sixth census data, to our country compulsory education school age population forecast in the next five years. And connecting with the enrolment, class size, teachers＇ workload, science week class number, the ex- isting science teachers number on compulsory education in China from 2016 to 2020 to calculate science teachers. Study found that in the next five years our country compulsory education science teachers gap amount is larger, but, between urban and rural areas, between elementary school and junior high school, the uneven gap among disciplines in junior high school. To help solve the problem, can be opened from gradual 1 -6 grade science class, guide the surplus teachers rotated to gap disciplines and teaching in two aspects.