外商直接投资与经济增长——基于中国数据的实证

Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth——An Empirical Study Based on China's Data

从外商直接投资方式这一视角,运用VAR模型,研究中外合资、外商独资与经济增长的关系。结果显示:中外合资、外商独资与经济增长间存在长期均衡关系;滞后4期的情况下,中外合资与外商独资均是经济增长的Granger原因,但是经济增长不是中外合资与外商独资的Granger原因;外商独资是中外合资的Granger原因,但中外合资不是外商独资的Granger原因;中外合资对经济增长存在长期负面影响,外商独资才是促进经济增长的重要外资来源。

From the perspective of foreign direct investment, the paper studies the relationship between Sino-foreign joint investment, foreign investment and economic growth with VAR model. The results are as follows： there exists a long-term relationship of equilibrium between Sino-foreign joint investment, foreign investment and economic growth at the confidence level of 95% ; with four periods of lag, Sino-foreign joint investment and foreign investment are the Granger causality of economic growth while economic growth isn＇t the Granger causality of Sino-foreign joint investment and foreign investment; and foreign investment is the Granger causality of Sino-foreign joint investment while Sino-foreign joint investment isn＇t the Granger causality of foreign investment. Impulse function shows that Sino-foreign joint investment has long-term negative effects on economic growth while foreign investment can effectively promote economic growth.