贵州湄潭降水量演变特征及趋势预测

Evolution Characteristics and Tendency Prediction of Precipitation in Meitan County of Guizhou Province

贵州多为季节性干旱,且降水量年内分配极不均匀.以贵州省湄潭县1951—2012年全年及四季降水资料序列为研究对象,采用Mann-Kendall非参数秩次相关检验法、R/S分析方法对湄潭站降水量的趋势性和持续性进行分析,并将二者结合预测未来降水量变化趋势.结果表明:1湄潭地区春季降水量未来有明显的下降趋势,且下降的趋势随时间的变化越来越显著;2夏季降水量未来有缓慢的上升趋势;3秋季、冬季和全年降水量未来均有缓慢的下降趋势.

It is mainly seasonal drought in Guizhou Province,the annual distribution of precipitation is extremely uneven. Taking the annual and seasonal precipitation datum from 1951 to 2012 in Meitan County of Guizhou Province as the research object,utilizing Mann-Kendall non-parameter statistical method and R / S analytical method,the tendency and persistence of the precipitation in Meitan station were analyzed,the tendency of future precipitation was predicted by two methods. The results show that for the Meitan area： 1the spring precipitation will be a significant downtrend in the future,the downtrend will be more and more obvious with time; 2the summer precipitation will be a uptrend in the future; 3the autumn and winter and annual precipitation will be a slow downtrend.