基于信息熵的区域产业结构演化阶段分析——以广西桂林市为例

Analysis on the Regional Industrial Structure Evolution Based on Information Entropy: a Case Study of Guilin City in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region

根据"配第-克拉克定律"和"库兹涅茨法则"等产业结构演化的一般规律,运用信息熵对桂林市产业结构进行时间序列分析,探讨了桂林市产业结构演化特征,分析了桂林市产业发展阶段。结果表明:桂林市产业结构信息熵和均衡度在时间序列上呈现出中间高、两端低、总体较高的变化趋势;产业结构信息熵的变化趋势反映出桂林市在研究期间长期以来第一产业占主体地位,第二、三产业发展缓慢且所占比重较低;根据GDP和产业结构信息熵的时间序列变化特征,可将研究期间桂林市产业发展阶段划分为3个阶段,即20世纪70年代后期到80年代中期(阶段Ⅰ)、20世纪80年代后期到21世纪10年代(阶段Ⅱ);21世纪10年代至今(阶段Ⅲ)。

According to ＂Petty-Clark＇ s law＂ and ＂law of Kuznets＂, which are general laws for industrial structure evolution, this article analyzed the industrial structure in Guilin during 1978 -2009 based on information entropy. This article also explored the characteristics of industrial structure evolution and analyzed the industrial development stages in Guilin. The results are as follows： the information entropy and equilibrium degree of industrial structure in Guilin showed an overall trend of being high values with a high middle and low ends during the study period ; the change tendency of the information entropy reflected that the primary industry had been dominant for a long time in Guilin during the study period, while the secondary and tertiary industry slowly developed with low proportions; based on the change tendency of GDP and information entropy of industrial structure, the industrial development in Guilin can be divided into three stages, which were late in the 1970＇ s to the middle of the 1980＇s （phase 1）, late in the 1980＇s to late in the 2010＇s （phase Ⅱ ） and 2010 to now （phaseⅢ）.