基于SSM法的广东入境旅游客源市场结构分析

The structure of inbound tourism market in Guangdong based on SSM

选用广东省及全国1995-2013年的入境旅游人数作为研究对象,运用转移份额分析法(SSM)对广东省近20年4个阶段的入境旅游客源市场结构进行比较分析。研究发现:港澳客源市场虽原有市场基础好,竞争力很强,但增长率不断下降,相对竞争力减弱;台湾客源市场原有市场基础较差,且竞争力逐渐减弱,发展有所滞后;外国客源市场竞争力逐渐提高,同时改善了原有的市场基础。在全国背景下,2010年以来广东省的入境旅游客源市场结构尽管有所改善,但是仍不合理且竞争力下降明显。

This paper selected inbound tourist arrivals from 1995 to 2013 in Guangdong province and the country as the research object, and used the shift share method（SSM） to analyze the structure of the inbound tourist market in Guangdong for nearly twenty years. The results showed： the original tourist market from Macao and Hong Kong is good and highly competitive,but the growth rate is relatively declining and less competitive in the last two decades; the development of tourist market from Taiwan has lagged; the market competitiveness of foreign tourists will gradually increase and improve the existing market basis; seen from the whole country, since 2010 the structure of inbound tourism market in Guangdong, although having improved, is still not reasonable, and its competitiveness has decreased significantly. Finally, some effective suggestions were given to develop the inbound tourism.