我国房地产业与金融业的产业关联度分析——基于投入-产出法的研究

Analysis of Relations between Real Estate industry and Financial Industry Through the Input-output Method

以1997、2005和2007年中国投入产出表数据为基础,运用投入产出分析法,对我国房地产业和金融业进行产业关联分析。主要结论为:房地产业对金融业的带动效应明显,对其产生需求拉动和供给推动的双重作用,并且房地产业对金融业的直接关联关系和间接关联关系都十分密切。然而,房地产业对金融业的带动作用从1997年到2007年有明显下降(根据中间投入率),2005年之后金融业对房地产业的产品依赖度下降(根据分配系数),并且金融业对房地产业中间需求的贡献作用也在下降。因此,尽管房地产业与金融业的产业关联密切,整体上却呈现关联度弱化的趋势。

Data of this paper are collected from the national input-output data of China in 1997, 2005 and 2007. Using the input-output method, this paper analyzes the association between Chinese national real estate industry and finance. Main conclusions are as follows： the real estate industry has a signifi cant driving effect on fi nance, playing a double role of promoting demand and supply. Moreover, the direct and indirect relationships of real estate to fi nance are very closely affi liated. However, the leading effect from the real estate industry on finance have decreased significantly from 1997 to 2007（ according to the rate of intermediate input）. Since 2005, fi nancial dependence on real estate products have decreased（ based on the distribution coeffi cient）, intermediate demand contribution from fi nance to the real estate industry has also been in decline. In conclusion, while real estate and fi nance are closely related, the association between them is weakening.