房地产借贷与中国宏观经济波动——基于信贷扩张视角的DSGE模拟研究

Real Estate Loan and Macroeconomic Fluctuations of China:Based on Credit Mechanism with DSGE Simulation Method

本文从银行信贷角度入手,构建了一个包含家户、企业、商业银行、央行等多个经济主体的动态随机一般均衡模型。在此基础上模拟分析了房地产偏好、利率、通胀等冲击对中国经济的影响,并分析房地产和经济波动的原因。分析结果表明,尽管房地产刚性需求在一定程度上推高了房价,但房价过高的根本原因不是刚性需求,过多的货币通过信贷渠道流入房地产市场才是根本原因。在货币信贷渠道下,通过存款准备金率对经济的调节,会使得经济波动的时间要比其他外生冲击对经济影响更大,时间上也更持久。

From a credit supply perspective, we fully embody multiple properties of real estate, and build a dynamic sto- chastic general equilibrium model, which includes ： households, businesses, commercial banks, the central bank and other eco- nomic subjects. Based on the model, we simulate the economic situation of China and Economic operation mechanism of the re- al estate and economic fluctuations. The simulation show that the rigid demand of real estate push up price to a high level. But the fundamental reason of high house price is too much money in the real estate market through the credit channel. The shock from the deposit reserve ratio through credit channels will make a larger effect than other exogenous shocks on economic fluctua- tions, the impact is also more persistent.