预期、不确定性与房地产销售策略——来自杭州的经验证据

Expectation,Uncertainty and Housing Sales Strategy: Empirical Evidence from Hangzhou

为了最大化项目利润,开发商对于未来的判断成为影响房地产销售策略的重要因素:房价增长预期和不确定性都能提高延迟销售的价值。基于实物期权理论,利用杭州市住宅项目和地块匹配的数据,本文检验开发商预期和未来不确定性对于房地产销售时机决策的影响。为规避政策风险,开发商可能通过项目分期策略变相"捂盘",本文设计了偏误纠正的联立方程模型以控制内生性。结果显示,未来不确定性和开发商的看涨预期都显著推动了项目延迟销售。通过估算项目利润,发现"捂盘"并不总指向高利润,这说明在过去房地产市场一片看涨情绪下,开发商有可能做出非理性的决策。

Developer＇s belief on future market plays a dominant role in his strategy of selling property. Both expectations and future uncertainty can lead to sale delay. Based on Real Options, we use matched project data and land transaction data in Hang Zhou, and testify the effect of expectations and future uncertainty on developer＇s timing decision. Considering that devel- opers may sell in multi-batches to delay sale, we design a simultaneous equations model. Results show that expectations and fu- ture uncertainty significantly delays the timing of selling property. We further find that the delay does not always result in higher profit, which indicates that developers may make an irrational decision under the lasting bullish sentiment in China＇s real estate market.