房地产调控政策的连续性与有效性--基于信贷资源再配置的视角

The Continuity and Effectiveness of the Real Estate Regulation Policy:A Perspective of Credit Redistribution

房地产调控政策的有效性一直备受质疑,本文基于房地产上市公司的数据检验了房地产调控政策对房地产企业融资的影响,从商业信用再分配理论的角度解释房地产市场调控失效的原因。实证结果表明:房地产市场的调控政策能够影响房地产企业的信贷融资,但房地产企业的商业信用与银行信贷之间存在显著的替代关系,在货币政策紧缩时期,房地产企业更是增加了对商业信用的利用,表明商业信用的信贷资源再配置效应抵消了房地产调控政策的效果。进一步的研究表明,连续性的调控政策能显著降低商业信用对银行信贷的替代作用。本文的结论有助于说明房地产调控失效的原因,对我国房地产市场的有效调控也具有一定的启示作用。

The effectiveness of the real estate regulation policy has been questioned. This paper examines the effectiveness of the real estate regulation policy based on the real estate listed companies＇ data, and explains the failure of the real estate regulation policy by commercial credit redistribution theory. The empirical analysis shows that, the real estate regulation policy can affect real estate credit, but there is a significant substitution relationship between the commercial credit and bank credit which the real estate enterprises obtained. In the period of tight policy, real estate enterprises increase the use of commercial credit, which indicates that redistribution effect of commercial credit may offset the effect of the real estate regulation policy, further study indicates that the continuity of regulation policy can significantly reduce the substitution of commercial credit to bank credit. The conclusion of this paper helps to explain why real estate regulation policy fails, and also has enlightenment role for effective regulation of the real estate market in China.