基于复杂分层网络的城际路网级联失效可靠性仿真

Cascading failure reliability simulation of inter-city highway based on complex layered networks

传统拓扑网络级联失效可靠性模型,大多忽略路网设施与运输需求的空间分布问题。在复杂分层网络结构模型基础上,提出了城际路网的级联失效可靠性仿真模型,对中国内地城际路网的可靠性进行了实例仿真研究。仿真数据表明:稳定配流状态下,长三角、环渤海、京津唐、珠三角地区OD负载聚集程度最高。当OD总量大于一个临界值时,针对高OD负载区域路段的蓄意攻击,容易引起城际路网系统的级联崩溃,其中长三角地区对蓄意攻击最为敏感。实验结果显示,该模型能够有效仿真分层网络的空间结构特征对路网级联失效可靠性的影响作用。

The reliability research based on network topology may ignore the complex features associated with the process of flow distribution. On the base of complex layered network theory, this paper presented the model, which built the process of cascading failure, and then simulated the cascading failure reliability of the inter-city highway network in China's Mainland. Simulation results show that： the highest OD load roads mainly locate around the four districts of Yangtze River delta, Bohai Sea, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and Pearl River delta. The dehberate attacks on the roads locating in the high OD load area is liable to cause cascading collapse of the whole road network. In the four regions, Yangtze River delta is most sensitive to the deliberate attacks on the roads. The experiment results show that, this model can effectively measure the affect of intercity road＇ s spatial layered characteristics on cascading failure reliability.