我国农村居民边际消费倾向的区域差异性

The Regional Differences of Rural Residents' Marginal Consumption Tendency

本文基于核方法分别建立了东中西部农村居民消费与收入关系的面板数据固定效应非参数模型,并运用1991-2013年全国29个省市的数据进行实证检验,结果显示:东中西部农村居民的边际消费倾向存在明显差异,东部地区边际消费倾向波动变化最敏感,西部地区边际消费倾向波动变化持续性相对较强;目前东部地区农村居民的边际消费倾向还有下降趋势,中部地区农村居民的边际消费倾向则有持续增长的态势,西部地区农村居民的边际消费倾向趋于平稳。

In order to empirically analyze the regional differences of rural residents′marginal consumption tendency in eastern, central and western regions of China, three panel data fixed effect nonparametric models for rural residents′con-sumption and net income are respectively established by kernel method, and an empirical test is carried out with data of 29 provinces （ cities） from 1991 to 2013.Results show rural residents′marginal consumption tendency in eastern, cen-tral and western areas of China is different obviously, i.e., the fluctuation of the marginal consumption tendency in east-ern areas is highly sensitive and the duration of fluctuation in western areas is strong;the rural residents′marginal con-sumption propensity in eastern regions shows a downward trend, shows a sustained growth trend in the central regions, and tends to be stable in the western regions.