政府规模的经济增长效应——基于陕西经验的STR模型实证分析

The Economic Growth Effect of Government Size: An Empirical Analysis of Smooth Transition Regression based on Emperience of Shaanxi Province

政府规模会对经济增长产生直接和间接影响,这两种影响在经济发展不同阶段对经济的增长效应有所不同。基于陕西1990-2012年间的宏观经济数据,本文采用STR方法分析政府规模的经济增长效应,发现二者之间存在非线性关系,而且存在区间转换特征:经济发展水平较低时,政府规模的扩张对经济增长有促进作用;经济发展水平较高时,政府规模的扩张对经济增长有阻碍作用,且转换速度比较快。

Government size indirectly and directly effects the economic growth, and the two aspects effect economic growth in different periods.The paper analyzes economic growth effect of government size using Smooth Transition Re-gression with macro economic data in Shaanxi province from 1990 to 2012, finding there exists the no-linear relationship between government size and economic growth, and obvious interval conversion feature, namely the expansion of govern-ment size plays a role in promoting economic growth with a relatively low level of economic development, but the expan-sion of government size is harmful to the economic growth with a relatively high level of economic development, moreover conversion speed of this kind is faster.