贸易方式与经济增长:基于贸易结构的分析

Trade Mode and Economic Growth: An Analysis from the Perspective of Trade Structure

本文运用协整理论与Granger因果检验方法,对我国近30年来贸易方式结构与经济增长的相关性进行实证研究,发现我国贸易方式结构与经济增长之间存在正相关关系,但两个变量无法通过格兰杰因果关系检验,即我国当前以高比例加工贸易为主要特征的贸易模式无法成为GDP增长的稳定因素。因此,我国当前以高比例加工贸易为主要特征的贸易方式结构不利用于经济长期增长。在加工贸易面临较大转型压力背景下,我国应加快加工贸易方式结构转型调整,使加工贸易与经济发展长远利益结合起来,同时积极发展对经济增长贡献更大的一般贸易。

Based on the data of general trade and processing trade in recent 30 years in China, the paper adopts cointe-gration theory and Granger causality test methods to analyze the correlation between trade mode and economic growth.It finds that there is a positive correlation relationship between China′s trade structure and economic growth, but the two variables can′t pass the Granger causality test.It means that processing trade has not been a stable factor promoting the growth of GDP in China.Therefore, the current trade mode characterized by high rate of processing trade is adverse or long-term economic growth.As the transformation of processing trade is facing great pressure, our country should speed up the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, meanwhile actively promote the development of general trade, which contributes more to economic growth.