日本水产品进口需求的结构变动分析及对我国的启示

The Change in Structure of Japanese Import Demand for Fishery Products and Its Inspiration to China

借助于联合国商品贸易数据库和渔业统计数据库,利用渐进调整AIDS模型对日本水产品进口需求结构展开分析。研究表明:日本水产品进口需求在1976—1980年间发生了渐进式的结构变动,之后趋于相对稳定状态;鲜活冷藏冷冻鱼、甲壳类、软体类及其制成品和"其它"类均为正常商品但缺乏弹性,且在进口需求结构中是互补而非替代关系;干腌熏鱼为劣等品;消费者对水产品总支出的增加将会提高鱼和甲壳类制成品、鲜活冷藏及冻鱼的需求。建议中国出口商通过提高产品质量、提升产品形象、增加产品附加值巩固并扩大已有优势。

Based on the datsbases of UNCOMTRADE and FishstatJ on FAO website, this paper makes a quantitative analysis on the structural change of import demand for fishery products in Japan using the Gradually Switching AIDS the Almost Ideal Demand System. The study shows that the asymptotic structural change of the import demand for fishery products occurred in the period from 1976 to 1980 and then it indicated a relatively stable state. The classes, for example, 034, 036, 037 and some others were normal commodities but lacked flexibility; 035 was a inferior commodity; 034, 036 and 037were complementary rather than substitutive products in the import demand structure. The expenditure elasticities for 037 and 034 were positive to the change in expenditure. In Japanese import market, China enjoys its absolute advantage in 037, so it is necessary for Chinese exporters to improve the quality, enhance the image and increase the added？value of their product to consolidate and expand the existing advantage.