观察中东局势应避免严重误判

Avoiding Misjudgment on Analyzing on the Situation in the Middle East

研究中东问题要避免严重的误解和误判,它包括以下问题:如何界定阿拉伯世界群体性抗议浪潮,如何观察叙利亚局势,如何看待埃及的转型,如何评估"伊斯兰国"的力量、影响及前途。只有很好地回答了这些问题,才能避免干扰政府的决策和误导民众。

We should avoid serious misunderstanding and misjudgment when doing the Middle East research. For instance ： how to define the wave of mass protests in the Arab world, how to observe the Syria situation, how to regard the transforma- tion in Egypt and how to evaluate the power, influence and future of ＂IS＂, so as not to interfere the government decisions and mislead the public.