基于“低碳”理念的城市土地利用系统健康评价研究

Evaluation Research on the Health of City Land Use System Based on the “Low Carbon” Concept

将城市土地碳排放和城市减排措施作为城市土地利用系统健康评价的重要指标,以PSR模型为框架,采用障碍度模型和变异系数法,对郑州市城市土地利用系统健康状况进行定量研究。研究结果显示:(1)2003—2012年郑州市的城市土地利用系统健康状况由不健康逐步过渡到临界状态,且响应系统障碍度不断下降,而压力系统障碍度则逐渐增加。(2)2003—2012年郑州市城市碳排放障碍度呈缓慢下降趋势,城市低碳措施的障碍度虽有波动但下降不明显。(3)单项因素障碍诊断方面,建设用地比重、社会固定资产投资增长率、城镇人口密度、城市碳汇面积增加量等因素随着时间的推移逐渐成为系统的主要障碍因素,而低碳指标始终是城市土地利用系统健康的主要障碍因素。可得出结论:为促进城市土地利用系统的健康发展,需要转变经济发展方式,促进城市土地的多样化利用,加强城市土地的市场化配置程度,增加城市环保投入,以低碳城市为目标,制定相应的减排政策。

The author took carbon emission of city land and emission reduction measures as importantevaluation indexes of city land use system health, adopted the PSR model as framework and used the method ofobstacle degree and variation coefficient, conducted quantitative research on the health status of land usesystem in Zhengzhou City. The results showed that：（1） from 2003 to 2012, the health status of the city land usesystem in Zhengzhou was gradually transiting from unhealthy to critical state, the obstacle degree of therespond system decreased constantly, but the obstacle degree of pressure system kept increasing;（2） from 2003 to 2012, the obstacle degree of carbon emission in Zhengzhou declined slowly, meanwhile, the obstacle degreeof low-carbon measures fluctuated, but the decline was not obvious;（3） in terms of the single factor disorderdiagnosis, it indicated that, as time went on, factors such as the proportion of construction land, the growth rateof social fixed asset investment, population density and the growth amount of city carbon sink area weregradually becoming the main obstacle factors of the system, but the low-carbon index was the most importantobstacle factor all the time. In order to promote the healthy development of the urban-land use system, it wasnecessary to change the economic growth mode, promote the diversification of city land utilization, strengthenthe marketization of the city land allocation, increase the investment in environmental protection and formulatecorresponding emission reduction policies with the goal of developing low-carbon city.