2013年多模式对抚顺降水预报的检验

Precipitation Verification of Multi-model of 2013 in Fushun

为了提高抚顺地区晴雨预报准确率,减少空报和漏报的发生,对2013年1—8月德国数值模式和日本数值模式降水预报产品的48 h降水量减去24 h降水量作为24 h降水预报量进行晴雨预报准确率、降水评分、空报率和漏报率分析。结果表明:德国模式降水预报产品的2762、2863、2763站点和日本模式降水预报产品的3351、3452、3352站点的降水预报值与抚顺、清原、新宾的降水有很好的对应关系;德国和日本模式降水预报产品对抚顺24 h降水评分相同,日本模式空报率高,德国模式漏报率高;德国模式晴雨预报准确率高于日本模式;在抚顺的日常24 h预报中,德国模式降水预报产品更值得关注。

In order to improve the clear-rainy forecast accuracy rate of Fushun, to avoid the occurrence ofempty report and omission report, the author analyzed the clear-rainy forecast accuracy rate, TS-score, emptyreport rate and omission report rate of the 24 h precipitation forecast（48 h precipitation forecast value minus24 h precipitation forecast value） each from German numerical model and Japanese numerical modelprecipitation forecast products from January to August in 2013. The results indicated that the station 2762,station 2863, station 2763 of German numerical model precipitation forecast products and the station 3351,station 3452, station 3352 of Japanese numerical model precipitation forecast products had a goodcorresponding relation with the precipitation of Fushun national basic weather station, Qingyuan national basicweather station, Xinbin national basic weather station; the Japanese numerical model precipitation forecastproducts were higher in empty report rate, but the German numerical model precipitation forecast productswere higher in omission report rate even though the two products had the same TS- score; the Germannumerical model precipitation forecast products were also higher in the clear-rainy forecast accuracy rate; inthe daily 24 h precipitation forecast the German model precipitation forecast products deserved more attention.