耕地地力评价因素对粮食产量的影响——以河南省洛阳市为例

Influence of Cultivated Land Fertility Evaluation Factors on Grain Output:Taking Luoyang City,Henan Province as An Example

以河南省洛阳市为例,采用灰色关联分析法、汇总求均值法和多项式回归模型,探讨了耕地地力评价因素对粮食产量的影响,建立了单个评价因子和组合评价因子与粮食产量之间的关系,结果表明：灌溉保证率、地貌类型、有效土层厚度对粮食产量影响较大,灌溉保证率的隶属度为0.6253,从能灌提高到保灌时,粮食生产能力提升空间最大,为1129 kg/hm2;高程、质地对粮食产量的影响较小,高程的隶属度为0.4814,级别由大于800 m到500~800 m时,粮食生产能力提升空间最小,为61 kg/hm2。随着耕地地力综合指数的改变粮食产量也随之改变,粮食产量在3810.7~8506.3 kg/hm2之间变化,即耕地地力综合指数每改变0.1,粮食产量相应的变化值在809.6 kg/hm2左右。单个评价因子和组合评价因子均对粮食产量有重要影响。

Taking Luoyang city of Henan province as an example, using grey related analysis, averaging method and polynomial repression model, the author explored the influence of cultivated land fertility evaluation factors on the grain output, and established the models of describing the relationships between grain output and single or combined evaluation factors. The results in- dicated that irrigation guarantee rate, geomorphic type and effective soil layer thickness of cultivated land had great influence on grain output. The membership of irrigatiorl guarantee rate was 0.6253, and the enhancement potential of grain output was maximum （ 1129 kg/hm2 ） when the irrigation guarantee rate was increased from grade 3 to grade 4. The elevation and texture of cultivated land had little effect on grain output. The membership of elevation was 0.4814, and the enhancement potential of grain output was mini- mum （61 kg/hm2） when the elevation decreased from over 800 m to 500~800 m. The grain output varied from 3810.7 kg/hm2 to 8506.3 kg/hm2 as the integrated index of cultivated land fertility changed, namely the changing value of the former was about 809.6 kg/hrn2 when the changing value of the latter was 0.1. Both single evaluation factors and combined evaluation factors had an impor- tant influence on grain output.