基于分形模型的京津冀铁路网络协同发展——与长江三角洲、珠江三角洲的比较分析

Study on the Coordinated Development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Railway Network based on Fractal Model——the Comparative Analysis with the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta

目前,京津冀协同发展已经上升为国家战略,而交通一体化、生态环境保护、产业对接协作成为京津冀协同发展的三个突破口,其中交通一体化作为基础条件应当先行启动,率先突破,特别是区域铁路网络一体化是非常重要的一环。文章基于非线性分形模型,测算京津冀铁路网络均匀度和复杂度,考察铁路规模与经济增长之间的协调关系。结果发现,尽管与长江三角洲和珠江三角洲相比,京津冀铁路拥有较高的网络密度,但存在过度集中于北京枢纽的结构性问题,加之近十年来京津冀铁路规模扩张速度低于经济增长速度,已经出现了较为明显的门限作用。为更好地实现京津冀优势互补,促进并带动环渤海经济区以及北方腹地的发展,未来京津冀铁路网络建设必须以协调发展为前提,建设并调整铁路网络布局,将以北京为核心的放射型铁路网络转换为环放结合的网络形态,打造京津双核铁路枢纽,打破区域内铁路网络分布不均衡的现状,缓解首都过境交通压力,促进京津冀铁路网络布局转型升级。

At present,the coordinated development in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei has become our national strategy. Transportation integration, environmental protection and industrial connectivity are the three breakthroughs of that. And transportation integration,especially the integration of regional railway network,is the basic condition for the coordinated development in this area and will be realized first. Based on the nonlinear fractal model,the author calculates the evenness and the complexity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei railway network,and the coordination between railway scale and economic growth. Conclusions have shown that,compared with the Yangtze river delta and the pearl river delta,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei railway network has a higher density,but it has structural problem that railway is excessively concentrated in Beijing. At the same time, the railway expansion speed of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is lower than economic growth,and there has been an apparent threshold effect. To better realize complementing each other’s advantages,promote and lead the development of Bohai Sea economic zone and the development of North China,in the future,the construction of railway network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei should take coordinated development as the precondition,build and adjust the arrangement of that,convert the radiation railway network to a network combined with ring and radiation,solve the problem of imbalance distribution of the regional railway network,alleviate the transportation pressure on Beijing,and promote the transformation and upgrading of the layout of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei railway network.