基于小电网短期负荷预测方法的研究与分析

Research and Analysis of Short-Term Load Forecasting Method based on Small Power Grids

电力负荷预测依据经济、社会、气象等相关数据并结合电力负荷历史数据变化规律来估计和推测未来电力负荷的走势.介绍岱山电网负荷结构及特性,并对影响负荷的要素进行了分析.因岱山负荷轻,受气象、大用户影响大的特征,提出、分析将温度、降雨量、风力大小及检修计划作为自变量的多元线性回归短期负荷预测法.以实验结论和事实数据论证该方案的可行性,此方案可用于结构简单的小电网中,以提高短期负荷预测的准确性.

Power load forecasting estimates and forecasts the future trend of power load based on the data of economy, society and weather, as well as the data of power load history. This paper introduces the structure and characteristics of Daishan power grid load, and analyzes the factors affecting the load. A multiple linear regression short-term load forecasting method is proposed, which takes account Of temperature, rainfall, wind speed and maintenance plan, based on the fact that power load in Daishan is significantly impacted by weather and large number of users. The experiments and fact data prove that the proposal is feasible and can be used for small power grids with simple structure to improve the accuracy of shortterm load forecasting.