基于模糊层次分析法的电力变压器本体运维风险评估

Risk Assessment of Operation and Maintenance on Power Transformer Components based on Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process

变压器的运行状态直接关系到电网供电的安全稳定性,为保证其有效运行,有必要进行运维风险评估.对调研所得大量变压器故障历史数据从故障原因和故障严重程度两个角度进行统计分析,总结提炼出变压器本体运维风险,主要包括绕组风险、铁芯风险等七大类.对各类风险所含风险因素进行筛选和优化,剔除重复和不合适的因素,确定影响变压器本体运维风险的主要因素,构建风险评价指标体系.应用模糊层次分析法进行运维风险评估,详述评估流程和实现方法.算例分析证明了所构建评价指标体系的合理性和模糊层次分析法应用于风险评估的有效性.根据算例分析结果,提出具体的风险防范措施.

The working conditions of power transformers are directly related to the safety and stability of power grids. It is, therefore, necessary to do risk assessment of operation and maintenance to ensure effective transformer operation. In this paper, a large amount of historical fault data collected from surveys is statistically analyzed in terms of causes and extent of the faults. Seven operation and maintenance risks are extracted from the fault data analysis, that is, winding risk, iron core risk, insulation risk, casing risk, lead risk, cooling system risk, and tap risk. The risk factors are selected and optimized, and repetitive and inappropriate factors are kicked out, so as to determine the main factors affecting the operation and maintenance of transformer components and build an index system of risk assessment. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is then emptoyed to assess the operation and maintenance risks, and then the assessment procedure and implementation methods are illustrated in detail. Case studies prove that the index system of risk assessment is reasonable and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is applicable to risk assessment. Some risk prevention measures are accordingly proposed.