基于CGE模型的煤炭资源税改革影响研究

Impacts of coal resource tax reform on China's economy based on a CGE model

本文将可计算一般均衡(CGE)方法应用于研究煤炭资源税改革的影响,在模型中增加资源税模块,构建了测算中国煤炭资源税改革影响的40个部门的动态递归CGE模型,其中包含6个化石能源生产部门和4个电力生产部门.基于2007年的社会核算矩阵,应用该模型模拟了煤炭资源税由从量计征改为从价计征后,在不同改革情景下,从2014年到2020年对我国国内生产总值(GDP)、能源结构和碳排放的动态影响.结果表明,煤炭资源税由从量计征改为从价计征会对我国国内生产总值产生一定的负面冲击,但是,会对我国能源结构调整以及节能减排起到积极的推动作用,有利于中国减排承诺的实现.

This paper conducts a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium （CGE） model by introducing a resource tax module to estimate the impacts of coal resource tax reform on China＇s economy. The model contains 40 sectors, including 6 fossil energy sectors and 4 electricity sectors. Based on the social accounting matrix （SAM） of the year 2007, we apply the model to study the dynamic impacts of quantity-based collection and ad valorem collection on China＇s gross domestic product （GDP）, energy structure and carbon emissions, respectively. The results indicate that the coal resource tax reform would improve China＇s energy structure adjustment and help reduce the total energy using and carbon emissions. Meanwhile, China＇s GDP would be affected negatively.