基于agent-based model的住房市场演化问题研究

Research on the housing market evolution based on agent-based model

在房地产市场中,多个具有一定量财富的个体依据其不同需求产生具有差异性的住房选择行为,在宏观上会呈现某些特定的规律.本文从这一角度出发,运用agent-based model,在居民家庭财富增长和房屋价格双重因素的考虑下,依据房地产市场中个体的实际行为规律,设定出相应的运行规则,对房地产市场中个体迁移图景进行了计算机模拟.以基尼系数作为衡量经济不平等程度的标准,空间差异指数作为经济分割的度量指标,改变模型初始条件和各参数取值,从多角度分析,最终得出,在现有住房规律之下,随着居民家庭财富的不断增长,会导致城市居民出现居住空间上的隔离并进一步拉大贫富差距,形成空间经济分割的现象.

Different housing choice behaviors are produced by individuals who have a certain amount of wealth in the real estate market according to the diversity of their needs, which will present some regularity at the macro level. From this perspective, this paper sets up some operation rules using the agent-based model according to the actual behaviors of individuals in the real estate market, and computer simulations about individual migration in the real estate market are performed under the consideration of growth in household wealth and housing prices. Using Gini coefficient as a measure of economic segregation and spacial dissimilarity index as a measure of division of economics, changing the initial conditions and parameter values of the model and analyzing from multi-perspectives, it is finally concluded that the existing housing rules can lead to residential space segregation among urban residents and will further exacerbate the gap between rich and poor with the increase of household wealth, which will form the economic division.