全球贸易结构演化与贸易增长——基于引力模型的实证分析

Evolution of Global Trade Structure and Trade Growth:An Empirical Analysis Based on Gravity Model

本文基于最新的产品空间的理论,提出了一种定量测量出口结构的方法,并基于HS分类码6位细分的商品结构数据得到了双边出口结构相似性的指标,讨论了我国与主要国家之间的出口结构相似度演化情况。本文进一步实证检验了双边贸易结构相似度对双边经济关系的情况,发现结构趋同是国际贸易二元边际增长的重要因素。同时贸易结构趋同会推动双边经济水平的趋同,有利于后进国家赶超发展,也会推动两国建立区域自由贸易协定。贸易结构对相关双边经济活动的影响在不同的实证方法和检验中都体现出了统计和经济上的显著性,同时这一因素在控制相关固定效应的情况下仍是显著的影响,因此后续的分析双边经济社会关系的研究中应该考虑双边贸易的结构性因素。

Based on the latest product space theory, this paper constructs a measure to quantitatively inspect the export structure. By using the HS 6- digit commodity structure data, the index of similarity of export structures between countries is obtained, and the global evolution trend of the export structure simi- larity between China and other major countries is analyzed. This paper extends the Gravity model to further investigate the export structure similarity index of China＇ s major trading partners, finding that the convergence of trade structures is a main factor accounting for the increase of the binary margins. This paper concludes by arguing that future studies on bilateral economic societal relations should take the structural factors of bilateral trade into consideration.