什么影响了服务出口复杂度——基于全球112个经济体的实证研究

Determinants of Service Export Sophistication:An Empirical Analysis Based on 112 Economies

本文借鉴国内外学术界目前普遍采用的测度服务出口复杂度的新方法,测算了全球112个经济体2000-2011年的服务出口复杂度,并据此利用跨国面板数据对影响服务出口复杂度的可能关键因素进行实证分析。结果发现:(1)人力资本、服务贸易开放度、利用外资额、人均GDP水平、基础设施以及制度质量等,均对服务出口复杂度具有显著正向影响,而货物出口规模则产生了显著负向影响;(2)服务业发展规模以及人口规模变量对发展中经济体服务出口复杂度不具备显著正向影响,但对发达经济体却具有显著正向影响;(3)FDI对发展中经济体服务出口复杂度具有显著正向影响,而对发达经济体则不具备显著影响;(4)制度质量对发达经济体服务出口复杂度影响的程度及其显著性,均超过了对发展中经济体的影响。与现有关于制成品出口技术复杂度影响因素的研究相比,本文不仅补充分析了影响服务出口复杂度的关键因素,并且识别了同种因素对"两类"出口可能产生的不同影响。研究所得结论对于中国服务出口实现"量质齐升"的战略目标具有重要政策意涵。

Drawing on the new method proposed by Hausmann et al. （2005） to measure the complexity of services export, this paper estimates the complexity of ser- vices exports of 112 economies worldwide during 2000 - 2011. An empirical analysis is further carded out using cross - country panel data to test the possible determinants of services export complexity. The findings are： （1） factors such as human capital, ser- vice trade openness, utilized foreign capital, GDP per capita, infrastructure and institu- tional quality have significant positive effects on services export complexity, while the export scale has a significant negative impact; （2） the development scale of services in- dustry and the population scale do not have significant positive effects on services export complexity of developing countries, but have significant positive impact on that of devel- oped economies; （3） FDI has a significant positive effect on services export complexity of developing economies, while having no significant impact on that of developed econo- mies; （4） both the degree and the significance of the influence of institutional quality on services export complexity of developed economies exceed that of developing econo- mies. Accordingly, a steady and orderly manner to further expand the opening up of the services industry, improve the services infrastructure and institutional quality is crucial to attain the quality - quantity strategic goal of China＇ s services industry.