菲律宾入境中国旅游与贸易对重大事件的响应及相关关系

A study on the response of trade and inbound tourists from Philippine to China and their relationship

系统收集1986年-2011年相关数据,利用本底趋势线、环比增长率等方法分析旅游与贸易对重大事件的响应,考察两者响应的异同,在此基础上构建中菲旅游与贸易推拉方程,定量分析旅游与贸易之间的关系,结果发现：1986年-2011年菲律宾入境中国旅游主要受到1989年“6.4风波”等5次事件的影响.由于前一年环比增长率大幅下降或上升,导致基于环比增长率事件影响评价有一定的缺陷.菲律宾入境中国游客占入境外国游客总量的比整体比较稳定,“6.4风波”和SARS影响期间,菲律宾入境中国游客占入境我国外国游客总量的比上升.与旅游相比,进出口贸易的稳定性较高,仅受重大经济事件及双边政治经济关系的影响,对其他事件的响应程度较小.进出口贸易依存度对事件的响应较小,中国对菲律宾出口及进口贸易依存度均较小,出口不到1%,进口不到3%.菲律宾对中国出口及进口贸易依存度均较大,出口超过30%,进口超过20%.菲律宾入境中国旅游对进口贸易的推动作用要强于对出口贸易.

This work systematically collected relevant data from 1986 to 2011, analyzed the response of tourism and trade to major events by using natural trend curve and quarter-on-quarter growth analysis, on which the Philippines travel and trade push-pull equation was built and the relationship between tourism and trade was also quantitatively analyzed. Result show that： From 1986 to 2011, the inbound tourism from Philippines to China has mainly been influenced by the ＂6.4 incident＂ and other 5 similar events which happened in 1989. There are certain defects in the impact assessment based on quarter-on-quarter growth events with the previous year＇s quarter-on-quarter growth falling or rising sharply The inbound tourists from Philippines to China maintain a stable percentage of the whole entry of foreign tourists. During the ＂6.4 incident＂ and the SARS outbreak, the number of the inbound tourists from Philippines to China has rise＆ Compared with tourism, the import and export trade holds higher stability. The trade is only influenced by major economic events and bilateral political and economic relation, and has a low-level response to other events. Import and export trade have low dependency on the response of events. The dependency of China to Philippines＇ export and import trade is much lower, of which the export is no less than 1 %, and import is 3%. The dependency of Philippines to China＇s export and import trade is much higher, of which the export is more than 30%, and the import is more than 20%. The inbound tourism from Philippines to China had a greater impact on the import trade than on the export trade.