长三角滨海旅游经济差异时空演化及形成机理

The spatial-temporal evolution and mechanism of the coastal tourism economy difference in Yangtze River Delta

综合运用标准差、变异系数和泰尔指数等统计分析方法,以长三角地区11个沿海旅游城市为基本研究单元,探讨2002-2012年长三角地区滨海旅游经济的空间总体差异、差异构成及其差异演变态势,并运用面板数据模型对影响其滨海旅游经济差异增长的主要因素进行拟合分析,从时空视角揭示长三角地区滨海旅游经济差异的形成机制与演化规律.结果表明：（1）长三角滨海旅游经济差异演变呈现波动变化特征,绝对差异逐渐扩大、相对差异缓慢下降的趋势,区域旅游经济发展不均衡现象突出.（2）泰尔指数分解显示,长三角地区滨海旅游经济总体差异呈现逐渐缩小态势,且变化幅度逐渐趋于平缓;地带间差异大于地带内差异,地带间差异是总体差异的主要来源;南部、中部、北部地带内沿海城市之间的差异呈现不同的变化态势,南部和中部地带内差异呈现逐渐缩小且趋于平缓的态势,北部地带内差异则呈现先缩小后增大的特点.（3）地区经济发展水平、居民消费能力、基础设施条件、旅游规模与长三角滨海旅游经济发展之间关系显著,是其滨海旅游经济空间分异与动态变化规律形成的重要因素.

To explore the spatial-temporal evolution and mechanism of the coastal tourism economy difference in the Yangtze River Delta, this work calculated the overall spatial difference, its composition and evolutional trend of the tourism economy of the eleven coastal tourist cities from 2002 to 2012 by utilizing standard deviation,variation coefficient and Theil index. Furthermore, we used panel data to model the main factors affecting the development of the tourism economy disparities in this area. The results show that ： 1）the interurban difference of the coastal tourism economy in Yangtze River Delta is salient and fluctuating, with the absolute difference amplifing gradually and the relative difference declining slowly; 2）the overall spatial difference has been narrowing with a mild rate; the inter-zone difference is greater than the intra-zone difference and thus the main source of the overall difference; the evolution trend in the south, central and north part of this area is different from each other, with the tourism economy difference in the south and central part declining gradually and toning down, while that in the north part declining first and increasing later; 3）the regional economic development level, the residents＇ consumption capacity, infrastructure, tourism scale are significantly correlated with the coastal tourism economic development and comprise important factors affecting the spatial difference and evolution of the coastal tourism economy.