中国的近代化性质投资影响因素分析(1903～1936)

An Analysis on the Factors Affecting Modern——Oriented Investment in China(1903～1936)

本文使用数量分析方法对中国1903～1936年近代化投资的影响因素做了初步考察，结果表明，在中国资本品制造业极弱且基本依靠进口的条件下，中国近代化投资的主要影响因素为消费需求、汇率和投资惯性。消费需求、汇率和投资惯性三个变量弹性值依次为0．46、-0．36和0．77。比较分析消费需求和汇率两个影响因素相对重要性的结论是，消费需求的重要性大于汇率。关税税率对近代化投资的影响不显著，表明南京政府的关税政策对中国经济发展是有利的。

In this paper the factors affecting the modern-oriented investment in China are analyzed initially with quanti- tative method. Our conclusion is that the main factors affecting modern-oriented investment in China are consumption demand, exchange rate and investment inertia under the condition which Chinese investment goods manufacture was very weak and most investment goods depended on import. The elasticity coefficients of consumption demand, exchange rate and investment inertia in proper order are 0.46, -0.36 and 0.77. A comparative analysis indicates that consumption demand was a more impor- tant factor than exchange rate, and tariff had little influence on the modern-oriented investment, it proves that the tariff policy of Nanjing Government favored Chinese economy at that time.