长三角扩容与经济一体化边界效应研究

A Study of Scope Expansion and Boundary Effect of Economic Integration in Yangtze River Delta

2008年长三角区域经济一体化范围从原先的16市扩展到苏浙沪全境,为探索国内区域经济一体化边界效应变化及其政策有效性提供了有利的案例。利用长三角地级市2001-2012年数据,借助Barro趋同性回归方程,分别检验区域经济一体化的边界效应、一体化范围扩大效应、范围扩大政策有效性以及区域经济增长趋同性。结果显示,长三角核心和外围之间存在显著的边界效应,范围扩大后,从经济规模变化来看呈现显著的负向边界效应,从劳动生产率变化来看依然保持显著的正向边界效应,边界效应并未消失;长三角区域经济的融合早于长三角扩容政策颁布时期,该政策具有适应性政策调整特征。由此得出,区域经济不平衡发展过程中产业集聚与扩散规律是区域边界效应的成因之一,区域协调发展政策不能完全消除区域边界效应。因此,可适当运用区域边界效应来培育区域经济增长极、提高区域经济国内外地位、树立区域品牌形象,切莫过早地扩大范围而损害经济集聚趋势。

The range of Yangtze River Delta economic integration has extended from the original 16 cities to the whole areas of Jiangsu province, Zhejiang province and Shanghai city since 2008, which provides useful cases for the exploration of the boundary effect of domestic regional economic integration and the policy effectiveness. By making use of the data of prefecture-level cities in Yangtze River Delta during 2001-2012 and with the help of Barro＇ convergence regression equation, this paper tries to test the boundary effect of the regional economic integration, the scope expansion effect of the integration, the policy effectiveness of the scope expansion and the regional economic growth convergence respectively. The results show that there is significant boundary effect between the core of the Delta and its periphery. After the expansion, from the viewpoint of economic scale changes, there is significant negative boundary effect; from the viewpoint of labor productivity changes, there remains significant positive boundary effect, so the boundary effect does not disappear. The regional economic integration in Yangtze River Delta is earlier than the time of policy promulgation of the scope expansion, so that, the policy has the characteristics of adaptive policy adjustment. Thus it can be seen that the industrial agglomeration and diffusion in the process of the unbalanced development of regional economy is one of the causes of the regional boundary effect, the regional coordinated development policy cannot completely eliminate the boundary effect.