新常态下中国制造业可持续性发展路径研究——基于“全球工厂”的视角

Research on the Sustainable Development Path for China's Manufacturing Industry under New Normalcy: From the Perspective of Global Factory Theory

在制造业面对"空心化"威胁以及经济发展新常态特征的背景下,基于"全球工厂"理论框架,定性和采用集聚指数、产业专业化指数、产业梯度系数等方法定量分析了我国制造业可续性发展的路径。上海具有升级成制造业跨国公司亚太区域总部中心的能力,长三角地区在传统制造业的技术和规模经济优势有助于该地区承接国际产业转移,而中部地区在资本密集型产业、西部地区在资源密集型产业具有承接东部产业转移的能力。新的制造业空间布局将为我国构建"一带一路"的全面开放型经济发展模式奠定基础。

In the context of the manufacturing industry facing the ＂hollowing out＂ threat and the economic development having the new normalcy characteristics, and on the basis of the ＂Global Factory＂ theoretical framework, this study conducts a quantitative analysis of the sustainable development path for China＇s manufacturing industry with the qualitative method and adopting the agglomeration index, industrial specialization index and industrial gradient index. Shanghai has the capacity to be upgraded to become the center of Asia-Pacific regional headquarters of multinational corporations in the manufacturing industry, the Yangtze River Delta area has the technology of traditional manufacturing industry and the scale economic advantages, which can help the area to undertake the international industry transfer, while the capital-intensive industry in the central region and the resource-intensive industry in the western region have the capabilities to undertake the industry transfer from the eastern region. This new spatial distribution of the manufacturing industry can lay a foundation for China＇s construction of ＂one belt and one road＂ following the economic development mode of all-round opening type.