洪灾社会脆弱性熵权法评价及其时间序列分析——以2001-2012年湖北省荆州市为例

Flood Social Vulnerability Assessment Based on Entropy Method and Its Time Series Analysis: A Case of Jingzhou City from 2001 to 2012

利用荆州市2001-2012年社会经济因子,从社会敏感性与社会应对能力出发构建洪灾社会脆弱性指标体系。利用熵权法确定指标权重,建立社会脆弱性评价模型,得到荆州市洪灾社会敏感性、洪灾社会应对能力、洪灾社会脆弱性的评价结果;并采用多项式模型线性拟合与离散傅里叶变换对洪灾社会脆弱性进行时间序列分析。结果表明:1荆州市洪灾社会敏感性、应对能力、脆弱性呈现极高相关的二次多项式回归增长方式,敏感性、社会应对能力呈现上升态势,洪灾社会脆弱性表现为波动上升。2时间序列周期图可以得到洪灾社会脆弱性存在一个3年的周期。3根据敏感性与脆弱性的指数特征,把洪灾社会脆弱性指数划分为4个类型:2001-2006年为低敏感性、低应对能力;2006年为低敏感性、高应对能力;2007年为高敏感性、低应对能力;2009-2012年为高敏感性,高应对能力。

In this paper,the evaluation index system of flood social vulnerability is established by analyzing the socio-economy of Jingzhou city from 2001 to 2012.First,the weight of each index is determined by the entropy method which gives weight objectively only based on the information.Then,a social vulnerability evaluation model is built.Afterward,the evaluation results of flooding,such as social sensitivity,social response capability to disas-ters and social vulnerability in Jingzhou,are obtained.Finally,two methods of time series analysis on the social vulnerability in Jingzhou are used based on the quadratic polynomial regression model （QPRM）and discrete fourier transform （DFT）.The results show that：Three indicators,including the index of flood social sensitivity,response capability to disasters,and social vulnerability in Jingzhou,display high correlation with the growth mode of QPRM;According to the periodogram of the time series based on DFT,there’re four cycles with 3 years from 2001-2012 on flood social vulnerability;Based on the characters of sensitivity and vulnerability index,the period 2001-2012 is divided into four types：the period from 2001 to 2006 belongs to low sensitivity and low response capaci-ty;the year of 2006 belongs to low sensitivity and high response capacity;the year of 2007 belongs to high sensitiv-ity and low response capacity;and the period from 2009 to 2012 belongs to high sensitivity and high response ca-pacity.