1970年以来湖北省气候变化与旱涝灾害响应分析

Analysis on Climatic Change and Responses to Drought-Flood Disasters in Hubei from 1970

湖北省是中国亚热带地区的内陆省区,具有气候变化响应的特殊性。依据湖北省分布较为均匀的17个气象站点1970-2013年的逐月气温和降水数据,运用线性回归、插值分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析和标准化降水指数SPI等数理分析统计方法,对湖北省近44年来气候变化的时空分异规律以及旱涝灾害响应特征进行分析,结果显示:(1)近44年来,湖北省年降雨量呈减少趋势,其减少的速率为16.16 mm/10a,年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,其上升的速率为0.30℃/10a,整体呈暖干化趋势;(2)通过对年均温做Mann-Kendall突变检验后发现,湖北省气温在1994年前后发生突变,之后呈现出较大幅度的增温趋势;(3)就旱涝灾害来说,湖北省旱涝灾害频繁,中度、重度和极端旱涝灾害发生频率高达31.8%。研究证明:在暖干化趋势的背景下,湖北省气候变化响应体现出显著的阶段性特征,具有特殊性,其旱涝灾害也因气候变化体现出周期性干湿变化规律,当前几年正处于偏干旱阶段,旱灾较多。

Hubei is a subtropical province in the inland region of China, it has a specific response to drought-flood disasters. Based on the monthly temperature and rainfall data from 17 meteorological sites from 1970-2013, with linear regression, spatial interpolation, Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelet, the SPI index and the other mathematical statistics method, to analyze the spatiotemporal difference of climatic change and the characteristic of the responses of drought-flood disasters. The results showed ： （ 1 ） In recent 44 years, the rainfall of Hubei reduced with the rate of 16. 16 mm/10 a and the annual average temperature rose with a speed of 0. 30 ℃/10 a. （2）From the Mann-Kendall test, it was found that the abrupt change of the temperature took place in 1994 and then the temperature rose up sharply. （3）The drought-flood disasters of Hubei were frequent, and the moderate, severe and extreme drought-flood disasters accounted a proportion of 31.8% . The study proves that under the background of warming and drying , the responses to the climatic change had a characteristic of period and speciality, the drought- flood disasters embodied periodic law and the drought was prominent in recent years.