考虑多故障模式的新型装备更新保修费用预测

Cost prediction of the renewing warranty policy considering multiple failure modes for new equipment

立足我军装备维修保障实际需求,设计了保修策略体系。然后,在此基础上,针对装备更新保修策略费用难预测问题,结合新型装备多故障模式实际,建立考虑多故障模式的一维更新保修策略费用模型。建立了串联系统、并联系统、混联系统和冷储备系统的多部件多故障模式费用预测模型。最后,以冷储备系统为例进行了案例分析,验证了模型的有效性和实用性,为我军开展军民融合式装备维修保障建设提供理论指导和技术支持。

According to the actual requirements of the army maintenance support, a warranty policy system was formulated. Then, aiming at the difficulty of predicting the renewing warranty cost, a cost model for the one-dimen- sional renewing free-repair warranty policy is proposed considering the reality of the equipment＇s multiple failure modes. Multiple failure modes cost models for series, parallel, compound, and cold-standby systems are devel- oped. Finally, a case study,taking certain cold standby system for example, is shown to prove that the proposed models are effective and practical. The results of this method could provide theoretic guidance and technical sup- port to construct the equipment maintenance support under the condition of military-civil integration.