基于故障树分析的安全投资决策方法研究

Research on Decision-making Method of Investment for Safety based on Fault Tree Analysis

有研究表明增加安全投资能提升安全生产水平。合理地确定安全投资总额、比例及方向,有助于企业以有限地投入获得最佳的安全效果和经济效益。本文首先分析了安全投资决策的主要问题,认为效益分析是安全投资决策的重要环节,即要比较安全投入与产出的关系。以价值工程理论中"利益—成本"分析方法为基础,引入故障树分析的基本概念及相关定性、定量分析过程,探讨了故障树分析在安全投资决策中的应用,实例研究结果表明通过故障树分析能够得到比较满意和优化的投资方案,有助于综合权衡安全投入和安全效果,为安全投资决策问题提供了新的途径。

Researches have indicated that an increase in safety investments can result in the improvement of safety performance, and also will impose a costly burden on the enterprise. So the managers should make decisions with respect to the amount and usage of investments, allowing the trade-off between the invested resources and their safety effects, to obtain the best benefits. In this paper, some critical problems in decision making process were analyzed with a great emphasis played on the importance of traditional cost-benefit analyses. By using the value engineering theory as basis, we then discussed a method to support decision-making of safety investments based on fault tree analysis （FTA）, combining such concepts as top event, basic events and cut sets. Through a case study, this model was demonstrated that it can provide a new and useful tool for the enterprise to propose decision alternatives and determine which one has the highest expected safety benefits.