泛珠三角经济圈区域内经济增长差异及收敛性探究

Study of Economic Growth Differences and Convergence across the Pan-Pearl River Delta Economic Zone

泛珠三角经济圈建设已历经十年，经济一体化的趋势得到了加强，但区域内各省之间的增长差异并没有明显消退的迹象。基于新增长理论的分析框架，以广东省作为比较对象对泛珠三角其他七省（不含四川省）的经济增长差异及收敛性问题展开研究，得出如下结论：广东省人力资本储蓄率和贡献率高于其他省域，是劳均产出差异的根源；广东省劳均产出是其他省份的1．08—2．96倍不等；在向各自均衡路径收敛的时间上，最短的是福建省为11．27年，最长的是贵州省为26．07年。因此建议：泛珠三角经济圈的建设在内部可实现组团发展，深化“9＋2”形成区域内均衡发展，向外可拓展“10＋1”，积极融入海上丝绸之路，形成大珠三角经济区域。

The construction of Pan-Pearl River Delta Economic Zone has been developed for ten years and its trend of economic integration has been greatly strengthened. But, the differences of economic growth a- mong different provinces still do not fade obviously. Based on the analysis frame of The New Growth Theory and taking Guangdong Province as a comparison, this paper researches the differences of economic growth and their convergence time among the seven provinces in Pan-Pearl River Delta Economic Zone （except Si- chuan Province） and concludes that ： first, the savings and contribution rates of human capital of Guangdong are higher than those of the other provinces, which is the source of different output per worker; second, ac- cording to the calculation of the model, the output per worker of Guangdong is 1.08 to 2.96 times more than that of the other provinces; third, during their process of equilibrium convergence, the province which spends the shortest time in convergence is Fujian, which spends 11.27 years to finish its convergence, and the longest one is Guizhou, which spends 26.07 years. The paper suggests that the construction of Pan-Pearl River Delta Economic Zone should realize its group development from its internal side to deepen its model of ＂9 ＋ 2＂ to achieve balanced development and expand its model of ＂10 ＋ 1＂ from its external side to actively participate in the Maritime Silk Road and thus to form a Big Pan-Pearl River Delta Economic Zone.