广东区域经济增长收敛性:兼论“双转移”战略的效果

The Convergence of Regional Economic Growth in Guangdong:On the Effect of “Double Transfer” Strategy

广东省区域经济差距在1994年-2013年间呈现明显的倒u形变化，且与经济增长率的变化相伴，但略有滞后。在2005年尤其是2008年后，因广东省产业转移政策和“双转移”战略的实施，全省区域经济表现出显著的收敛，地区差距回落到20世纪末的水平。整个研究期全省21个地级市间呈现出弱的俱乐部收敛，影响广东省区域经济收敛的主要是珠三角与其他地带之间的梯度性差距，地带内差距则以珠三角内部差距为主。未来应继续推进“双转移”战略，保持近年来区域经济收敛的良好势头，抑制和防止区域经济差距的反弹。针对珠三角外围三市和传统的两翼山区，可以分别采取渐进式扩散和跳跃式扩散两种产业空间转移方式，分别实施点轴发展战略和增长发展战略。

Regional economic disparities in Guangdong province present an invert U-shaped change during 1994 -2013, accompanied with changes in the economic growth, but with a slight lag. After 2005, espe- cially after 2008, along with the implementation of a series of relevant policies in Guangdong＇s industrial transfer and ＂double transfer＂ strategy, the province＇s regional economy shows a significant convergence, and regional disparities go back down to the end of the century. Throughout the study period, the province＇s 21 prefecture-level cities show a weak club convergence. What has influenced the regional economic conver- gence of Guangdong is mainly the Gradient gap between the Pearl River Delta and other areas, and the main disparity of inner-zone is the Pearl River Delta gap. It is suggested to constantly promote the ＂double trans- fer＂ strategy in the future, to maintain a good momentum of recent years, and to restrain and prevent the dis- parity rebound of regional economy. As to three outer cities of the Pearl River Delta and traditional mountain flanks, we can take two patterns of spacial industry transfer, namely, progressive diffusion and jump diffu- sion, and implement point-axis development strategy and growth strategy.