不可控微电源综合发电功率预测

Forecast of Integrated Generation Power for Uncontrollable Microsource

不可控微电源的短期预测是微电网经济运行的重要基础.该文针对微电网覆盖区域较窄及容量小的特点,将微电网中所有不可控微电源的发电功率综合起来进行预测,提出混沌马尔可夫预测模型,可降低预测系统的复杂程度和预测成本.由不可控微电源综合发电功率历史数据,先建立混沌直接预测模型对综合发电功率进行直接预测,其预测过程简单;考虑到综合发电功率历史时间序列中噪声的累积使得预测残差较大,建立马尔可夫链残差修正方法修正预测结果,以提高预测精度.算例分析验证了所提方法的有效性.

The short-term forecasting of uncontrollable microsource generation power is an important foundation for the microgrid economic operation.The microgrid coverage area and its capacity are small.According to these,the generation power of all uncontrollable microsources in the microgrid are forecasted together in this paper,and the chaos-markov prediction model is built,which can reduce the complexity and cost of the forecasting system.Firstly,the direct chaos prediction model is established to forecast integrated generation power based on the historical data of uncontrollable microsource integrated generation power,which is simple.The cumulative noise of the historical time series make that the direct forecasting residual is large.Further,the markov residual correction method is proposed to correct the direct forecasting results,which can improve forecasting accuracy.Examples system is forecasted,which demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed forecasting method.